The Final Act of the Two State Solution?

Israel finds itself at a critical strategic juncture towards what may become the final act of the Two State Solution.

Essence of Warning

A Palestinian inversion towards principle of a Two State Solution is likely to happen in the coming months. This is due to a combination of the sides' inability to reach an agreement in the framework of the Annapolis process, the upcoming elections in Israel, the legislative crisis that is expected to engulf the Palestinians from January 2009 and an increase in voices calling for the adoption of the One State Solution.

Israel thus finds itself at a critical strategic juncture towards what may become the final act of the Two State Solution. A Palestinian inversion towards this principle and the adoption of the One State Solution as the strategy for the Palestinian National Movement would constitute an 'earthquake' for Israel's national security.

Introduction and Contents

1. In recent weeks, due in part to the lack of progress in negotiations and the improvement in Hamas' status, senior Palestinians in the West Bank have threatened to invert their position regarding the Two State Solution and demand a One State Solution to the Israeli - Palestinian conflict (hereinafter 'Palestinian Inversion'). This trend reached its peak with recent statements by Abu Mazen1 and Abu Ala in which they suggested considering dissolving the Palestinian Authority (PA) and demanding a binational state.

2. The agreed parameters of the political process are negotiations over an agreement of principles on Permanent Status that deals with all outstanding issues between Israel and the Palestinians. However, the upcoming elections in Israel and the weakness of the Palestinian political system increase the prospects of failure.

3. In this document, the Reut Institute warns that without a political breakthrough, there is a possibility that a Palestinian Inversion could take place before January 2009, with an unequivocal Palestinian demand for the establishment of one state in all of 'Mandatory Palestine' on the basis of 'one man one vote'.

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1 Ha'aretz, 7/31/08.